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Penumbra (PEN)
NYSE:PEN
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Penumbra
(NYSE:PEN)
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$303.00
â–²(18.13%Upside)
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
PEN continues to excel below the topline, with profitability metrics comfortably ahead of the Street this quarter.
Market Opportunity
Vascular thrombectomy is expected to be the biggest growth driver for Penumbra, with the market only roughly 10% penetrated, suggesting substantial growth potential.
Product Launch
Penumbra's Thunderbolt product is considered a potential 'game changer' that could provide a price lift and help improve market growth, adding an estimated 100-200 basis points to overall growth.
Negative Factors
Guidance Concerns
The lack of guide raise is not viewed as a cause for concern largely due to China being pulled out of full year assumptions.
Valuation Challenges
PEN's relative premium to profitable peers now sits at a fairly steep level, making it tough to lift the price target despite being a best-in-class innovator.
Penumbra (PEN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.81B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)505.06K
Price to Earnings (P/E)240.6
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth13.17%
EPS Growth-54.30%
CountryUS
Employees4,500
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength58
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.83
Shares Outstanding38,725,940
10 Day Avg. Volume457,193
30 Day Avg. Volume505,059
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)11.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio1.26K
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.92
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.92
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda51.34
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$319.58Price Target Upside24.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
Penumbra Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionPenumbra, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices in the United States and internationally. The company offers aspiration based thrombectomy systems and accessory devices, including revascularization device for mechanical thrombectomy, such as Penumbra System under the Penumbra RED, JET, ACE, 3D Revascularization Device, and Penumbra ENGINE brands, as well as components and accessories; neurovascular embolization coiling systems to treat patients with various sizes of aneurysms and other neurovascular lesions under the Penumbra Coil 400, POD400, PAC400, and Penumbra SMART Coil brand names; and neurovascular access systems designed to provide intracranial access for use in a range of neurovascular therapies under the Neuron, Neuron MAX, Select, BENCHMARK, BMX96, DDC, and PX SLIM brands. It also provides neurosurgical aspiration tools for the removal of tissue and fluids under the Artemis Neuro Evacuation Device brand; aspiration-based thrombectomy systems for vascular applications under the Indigo System brand; and detachable embolic coil systems for peripheral embolization under the Ruby Coil and Ruby LP brand names. In addition, the company offers microcatheter for the delivery of detachable coils and occlusion devices under the LANTERN brand; and detachable, microcatheter-deliverable occlusion devices designed primarily to occlude peripheral vessels under the POD (Penumbra Occlusion Device) brand, as well as immersive computer-based technologies and immersive therapeutics to promote health, motor function, and cognition under the Real Immersive System brand; and a complementary device for use with Ruby Coil and POD for vessel occlusion under the Packing Coil and Packing Coil LP brands. The company sells its products through direct sales organizations and distributors. Penumbra, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Alameda, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyPenumbra generates revenue primarily through the sale of its medical devices to hospitals and healthcare providers. The company’s revenue model is based on direct sales and distribution partnerships, where it sells its products to end-users or through third-party distributors. Key revenue streams include the sales of neuro and peripheral vascular devices, each contributing significantly to the company’s overall earnings. Additionally, Penumbra collaborates with various healthcare institutions and invests in research and development to innovate and expand its product offerings, thus driving growth and maintaining a competitive edge in the medical device industry.
Penumbra Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -7.99%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Penumbra, Inc. demonstrated strong financial performance with significant growth in the U.S. thrombectomy business and an improvement in gross margins. However, challenges in international markets, particularly in China, and flat gross margin expectations for Q2 present some concerns.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Penumbra, Inc. reported total revenue of $324.1 million, a year-over-year growth of 16.3% on a reported basis and 16.9% on a constant currency basis.
U.S. Thrombectomy Business Performance
U.S. Thrombectomy revenue increased by 25% year-over-year to $187.9 million, with the US VTE franchise leading with 42% year-over-year growth.
Gross Margin Improvement
The gross margin expanded to 66.6%, a 160 basis point increase over the prior year period.
Introduction of New Products
FDA clearance of Ruby XL, a new larger size diagnostic catheter-compatible peripheral coil, was received earlier than expected, with plans for a market launch in late Q2 or early Q3.
Positive Cash Flow and No Debt
The company ended the first quarter with cash and marketable securities balance of $378.8 million and no debt, reflecting strong operating profitability.
Raised Guidance for U.S. Thrombectomy Growth
The guidance for the U.S. Thrombectomy business was raised to a growth range of 20% to 21% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Decline in International Revenue
International revenue decreased by 2.5% reported and 0.1% in constant currency, primarily due to a decline in China revenue of $6.7 million.
China Revenue Exclusion
Given the current macro environment, the company has excluded China revenue from its forecast.
Flat Gross Margin Projection for Q2
Due to expediting costs for Ruby XL, Q2 2025 gross margin is expected to be similar to or slightly lower than Q1 2025.
Company Guidance
During Penumbra, Inc.'s first quarter 2025 conference call, the company reported a total revenue of $324.1 million, reflecting a 16.3% year-over-year growth on a reported basis and 16.9% on a constant currency basis. The U.S. thrombectomy revenue grew by 25% to $187.9 million, with a notable 42% increase in the USVTE franchise. The gross margin expanded to 66.6%, an improvement of 160 basis points from the previous year, while operating income rose to $40.4 million, representing 12.4% of revenue, a 550 basis point increase. The company anticipates achieving a gross margin profile of over 70% by the end of 2026. Penumbra maintained its total revenue growth guidance for 2025 at 12% to 14% year-over-year, despite removing $5 million in expected revenue from China due to macroeconomic conditions.Penumbra Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Penumbra exhibits strong financial performance with steady revenue growth and effective cost management. The income statement shows robust revenue growth and profitability, while the balance sheet reflects financial stability with conservative leverage. The cash flow statement highlights strong cash generation, supporting operational and strategic needs. However, there is room for improvement in operating margins.Income Statement
Penumbra's income statement demonstrates strong growth and profitability trends. The TTM revenue of $1.24 billion represents a substantial increase from prior years, indicating robust revenue growth. The gross profit margin stands at an impressive 63.5%, and the net profit margin at 3.4%, highlighting efficient cost management and profitability. However, the EBIT margin of 9.2% and EBITDA margin of 5.1% indicate room for improvement in operating efficiency.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a solid financial structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18, reflecting conservative leverage and financial stability. The equity ratio is strong at 76.1%, indicating a high proportion of equity financing and reduced financial risk. The return on equity (ROE) is modest at 3.5%, suggesting potential for enhanced profitability.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Penumbra's cash flow statement is characterized by strong operational cash flow with a high operating cash flow to net income ratio of 4.24, indicating robust cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 3.56, reflecting healthy cash surplus. The free cash flow growth rate of 2.06% is positive, though slightly modest, indicating stable cash generation.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 420.20M | 1.19B | 1.06B | 847.13M | 747.59M | 560.41M | Gross Profit |
| 277.55M | 755.00M | 682.64M | 535.21M | 475.38M | 338.18M | EBIT |
| -3.67M | 9.28M | 73.55M | -18.24M | -7.50M | -38.94M | EBITDA |
| 32.93M | 49.53M | 112.00M | 6.08M | 7.84M | -22.34M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 9.03M | 14.01M | 90.95M | -2.00M | 2.62M | -19.26M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 313.47M | 340.13M | 289.19M | 188.03M | 254.88M | 264.83M | Total Assets |
| 1.58B | 1.53B | 1.56B | 1.37B | 1.24B | 822.98M | Total Debt |
| 231.44M | 223.39M | 234.34M | 235.77M | 173.55M | 77.28M | Net Debt |
| 8.32M | -101.02M | 66.86M | 165.91M | 114.17M | 7.61M | Total Liabilities |
| 376.31M | 382.25M | 377.36M | 372.03M | 290.32M | 185.19M | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.20B | 1.15B | 1.18B | 998.86M | 953.93M | 641.50M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 8.08M | 147.30M | 82.12M | -74.96M | -11.68M | -58.00M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 20.37M | 168.48M | 97.33M | -55.66M | 9.50M | -33.24M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -26.40M | 77.62M | -16.08M | 54.79M | -21.73M | -104.15M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -10.54M | -87.01M | 16.20M | 11.62M | 836.00K | 134.92M |
Penumbra Technical Analysis
Neutral
256.50
Price Trends
275.33
Negative
275.09
Negative
249.13
Positive
Market Momentum
-7.12
Positive
38.12
Neutral
28.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PEN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 256.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 264.00, below the 50-day MA of 275.33, and above the 200-day MA of 249.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -7.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PEN.
Penumbra Risk Analysis
Penumbra disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Penumbra reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
We cannot guarantee we will make any additional repurchases of our common stock under our share repurchase program or otherwise. Q4, 2024
2.
We are exposed to the risk of nonpayment by our customers, which could adversely affect our financial condition or results of operations. Q4, 2024
Penumbra Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $13.30B | 31.92 | 7.82% | 3.07% | 4.58% | 55.99% | |
76 Outperform | $21.27B | 54.64 | 37.92% | ― | 23.49% | 71.25% | |
73 Outperform | $13.44B | 33.06 | 10.84% | ― | 1.64% | -9.60% | |
70 Outperform | $9.81B | 240.57 | 3.50% | ― | 13.17% | -54.30% | |
68 Neutral | $8.23B | 45.03 | 4.63% | ― | 32.26% | 112.87% | |
54 Neutral | $5.41B | 3.27 | -45.10% | 3.29% | 16.81% | 0.02% | |
49 Neutral | $6.34B | ― | -27.51% | ― | -2.46% | -637.11% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
PEN
Penumbra
256.50
69.18
36.93%
ALGN
Align Tech
177.85
-67.67
-27.56%
BIO
Bio-Rad Laboratories
226.91
-68.86
-23.28%
PODD
Insulet
304.63
106.23
53.54%
SNN
Smith & Nephew Snats
29.39
4.96
20.30%
GMED
Globus Medical
58.90
-7.78
-11.67%
Penumbra Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Penumbra Amends Incorporation Certificate After Stockholder Vote
Neutral
May 30, 2025
On May 28, 2025, Penumbra, Inc. filed an Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation with the State of Delaware, following stockholder approval at its Annual Meeting. During the meeting, stockholders voted on several proposals, including the election of Class I directors, ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent auditor, and approval of executive compensation. Additionally, amendments to the company’s charter were approved to phase in board declassification and eliminate supermajority voting requirements, reflecting significant governance changes aimed at enhancing corporate flexibility and shareholder influence.
The most recent analyst rating on (PEN) stock is a Buy with a $232.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Penumbra stock, see the PEN Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.